Sunday, April 23, 2006

Nuke Iran and the US will become the "Axis of Evil"

What will happen if the US Nukes Iran?

Imagine a world where the US is reviled by every other nation for the unforgivable damage we have done to innocent civilians. Where the US is under a Permanent Oil Embargo by all OPEC member states. Where Canada, Mexico and South America join Europe and Asia to ban all trade with the US and evict all US Military bases from their soil. Where all US citizens with any connection to the Bush Administration are put on a No-Fly List and are banned from travel outside the US. Where all US multi-national corporations are forced to split into separate US and Non-US corporations. Where the all corporations with any connection to the US are forced to change their names to avoid anti-US sentiment.

All this and more can happen if Bush decides to Nuke Iran.

Bush is the Decider. He makes the Decisions and the rest of us have to live with the consequences of Bush's Decisions. Bush's Decisions about the Middle-East have been uniformly bad. Some of them have been worse than bad; they have crossed the line into the zone of Criminal Negligence and Stupidity.

The worst Decision Bush has made in his two terms as President has been to insist that the use of Nuclear Bunker Buster bombs remain in the Pentagon's planning for dealing with Iran.

Iran may be telling the truth when they say that they are only trying to enrich Uranium for nuclear power or Iran may be lying. If Iran is telling the truth and their goal is just nuclear power, then using a Nuke against Iran will guarantee that Iran will go for The Bomb. If Iran is lying then using a Nuke against Iran will only delay Iran getting The Bomb by one or two years and will guarantee that they will attempt to use it against the US.

The US B61-11 Nuclear Bunker Buster bomb is only able to penetrate hard rock to a depth of 10-20 feet before it detonates. At 20ft penetration and maximum yield, the B61-11 can only destroy a facility that is buried less than 600ft below ground. Blast forces can be blocked by simple inexpensive materials like 100ft thick layer of gravel or bags of sand or granulated salt. The limitations of the B61 have been known for years and any Iranian weapons facility will have been built with those limits in mind.

If Iran is actually trying to build a Nuclear Bomb, they will probably have done what Iraq and Pakistan did by building a secret second facility buried deep under ground under the publicly visible facility at Natanz.

The Natanz facility in Iran is known to have a double roof of thick reinforced concrete with 50-75ft of gravel between the concrete layers. The roof is sufficient to protect against any non-nuclear bunker buster (even the US air forces MOAB bomb). Natanz could probably also survive a low yield Nuclear Bunker Buster bomb.

If the US actually used the B61-11 bomb in Iran against the Natanz or Isfahan facilities more than 100,000 civilian deaths could be expected in iran, Afganistan and India.