Sunday, April 09, 2006

The Inevitable Decline and Fall of Iraq

Iraq is doomed to go the way of Lebanon, Bosnia and Kosovo and the US is responsible. The US invasion of Iraq has started the sectarian breakdown of Iraq and the US is incapable of stopping the breakdown or mediating a peacefull settlement.

Right Now, only a unified Arab coalition of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Iran, Syria, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates could stop the breakdown of Iraq. Unfortunately none of the Arab countries have a sufficiently powerfull or charismatic leader to hold such a coalition together.

Sectarian Violence in Iraq is following the same path as Lebanon, Bosnia and Kosovo. The only questions are when will total breakdown occur and how awful Iraq will get before the Iraqi people reach a stable settlement.

When the breakdown occurs, Iraq will go through the same process of forced migration and ethnic cleansing as happened in Serbia, Bosnia and Kosovo.

The end result in Iraq will be a partitioned state with a Kurdish Democratic Republic in the north, a Sunni Muslim Theorcratic State in the north-central region and a Shiite Muslim Theorcratic State in the south. Iraq will probably not continue to exist as a unified nation. Bagdad will probably remain a war zone for a decade or more, like Sarajevo and Beirut.

1 Comments:

Blogger Bob Waters said...

Actually, the opposition is at the end of its rope.

Victory in Iraq will probably be assured within six months.

8:15 PM  

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